With just three weeks to go in the regular season, the AFC playoff picture is starting to really heat up. Unlike the NFC, where the playoff teams are pretty much set and are really just fighting for seeding at the moment, there is the potential for massive movement all throughout the AFC. The Ravens and Chiefs were able to clinch their respective divisions already, but both clubs are still fighting for positioning atop the conference.
If the season ended today, Baltimore would be the No. 1 seed, following by the Patriots, Chiefs, Texans, Bills and Steelers. The Tennessee Titans would be the club just on the outside of the playoff picture, but there are a number of other teams that have an avenue to dart up the standings over the next few weeks.
With that said, let's take a deeper look at this snapshot, rank the contenders and make our predictions on how the AFC will look at the end of the season.
The Eagles came back to beat the Giants in OT and tie Dallas atop the NFC East, and there's a lot to go over. Listen to Will Brinson and the Pick Six Podcast Superfriends break down the game and much more in the player below, and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Wild-card rankings
1. Buffalo Bills (9-4) - Projection: No. 5 seed
Despite Buffalo's loss to the Ravens in Week 14, they still have the inside track at the top wild card spot in the conference with their one-game lead (record-wise) over the rest of the pack. That said, this is a pivotal week for them as they visit the Steelers, who are just a game behind them in the standings. If Buffalo falls in Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football, that would start sending them in the wrong direction. They would then lose the No. 5 seed to the Steelers, who would own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Not only that, but they have an extremely tough task the following week traveling to New England to face a Patriots team who is clinging to a top seed. Buffalo will need to dig deep to make the postseason.
Conference record: 6-3
Strength of victory: .306
Final four: at Steelers, at Patriots, Jets
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) - Projection: No. 6 seed
As we mentioned above, the Steelers have a tremendous opportunity in front of them in Week 15 when they take on Buffalo. A win would bring them up to the No. 5 seed and would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills. Not only that, but it would extend their conference winning percentage tiebreaker over Tennessee, which they own at the moment. After this game, they have a rather easy contest against the Jets in New York and the Ravens could very well be resting their stars in Week 17. If they can pull off the victory in prime time this weekend, it'll go a long way in securing they'll play into January.
Conference record: 6-3
Strength of victory: .322
Final four: Bills, at Jets, at Ravens
3. Tennessee Titans (8-5) - Projection: Out
There is arguably no team hotter right now than the Tennessee Titians. They moved to 6-1 with Ryan Tannehill as the starter after a 42-21 dismantling of the Oakland Raiders. Now, they are knotted with the Texans for the AFC South lead and will play them twice over the final three weeks, giving them ample time to leap over Houston and secure a playoff spot. The only reason Tennessee isn't higher on the wild-card ranking is due to Buffalo having a game edge over them in the standings along with the Steelers owning a tiebreaker over them too, which makes their road a bit tougher. What also may throw a wrench into things is their Week 16 contest with the Saints. A loss there would really dampen their shot at making it to the playoffs from both an AFC South and wild card perspective.
Conference record: 6-4
Strength of victory: .442
Final four: Texans, Saints, at Texans
4. Cleveland Browns (6-7) - Projection: Out
After defeating the Bengals in Week 14, the Browns now own the tiebreaker over Indianapolis and Oakland based on conference winning percentage. The offense has looked better as of late with the emergence of receiver Jarvis Landry and running back Kareem Hunt, but Odell Beckham still hasn't been able to get things goings. Now, there are rumblings of discontent from OBJ's side of things, which could bubble up even more over the final few weeks. Outside of owning the tiebreakers, Cleveland doesn't feel like a legit playoff threat, especially with the Ravens and even Cardinals still on the schedule.
Conference record: 6-4
Strength of victory: .474
Final four: at Cardinals, Ravens, at Bengals
5. Oakland Raiders (6-7) - Projection: Out
The only reason why Oakland isn't lower on this list is because of their head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over the Colts. After looking like a promising playoff team earlier in the year, Jon Gruden's team has completely fallen apart, losing three straight in rather embarrassing fashion. They've been outscored 116-33 over this recent three game losing skid, which has completely taken them out of any legitimate playoff talk. They have a rather easy remaining schedule, but they'll need some serious outside help to even get the conversation started up again.
Conference record: 4-5
Strength of victory: .353
Final four: Jaguars, at Chargers, at Broncos
6. Indianapolis Colts (6-7) - Projection: Out
Indy isn't mathematically out of the playoff race, but they will certainly need a lot of help securing that final spot along with likely needing to win out. Their most recent loss to the Bucs didn't help their chances and they already have lost the head-to-head tiebreaker against Oakland. That's not even mentioning that this team is pretty banged up at the moment. You have to give head coach Frank Reich a lot of credit for getting this team to where they are following Andrew Luck's stunning retirement this summer, but the clock looks like it's about to strike midnight on them.
Conference record: 5-6
Strength of victory: .487
Final four: at Saints, Panthers, Jaguars
7. Denver Broncos (5-8) - Projection: Out
Denver is making a nice little run here with rookie quarterback Drew Lock. He's 2-0 as a starter and even was able to take down the Houston Texans in Week 14. Over these past two games, he's completed 72.7% of his passes for 443 yards, five touchdowns and two picks. They would need a miracle to actually make the playoffs after the Chiefs have already locked up the division, but Lock is ending this season on a promising note.
Conference record: 5-5
Strength of victory: .492
Final four: at Chiefs, Lions, Raiders
Division leaders
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens (11-2) - Projection: No 1 seed
Not much has changed here with the Baltimore Ravens. They were able to beat the Bills in Buffalo in Week 14 to keep the top seed in the conference and have even extended that lead following New England's loss to Kansas City. Now it seems like the only thing stopping Baltimore from a potential AFC Championship appearance would be injuries. The team did say on Monday that quarterback Lamar Jackson is dealing with a quad injury, but it doesn't sound too serious. With a win over New York on Thursday night, they could start to consider resting their stars.
Conference record: 7-2
Strength of victory: .504
Final four: Jets, at Browns, Steelers
AFC East: New England Patriots (10-3) - Projection: No. 2 seed
At the moment, the Patriots still have the No. 2 seed in the AFC. That said, they now are in a position to lose it if they are not careful over the next three weeks. Thanks to their most recent loss to Kansas City, the Chiefs now own the head-to-head tiebreaker over them. If they end the season with the same record, it'll be K.C. who enjoys a first-round bye, while the Pats are playing on Wild-Card Weekend. The good news is that they have an easy final three weeks of the year as they'll play the Bengals in Cincinnati before hosting the Bills and Dolphins at Gillette Stadium. As long as they win out, they'll be the No. 2 seed.
Conference record: 6-3
Strength of victory: .408
Final four: at Bengals, Bills, Dolphins
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (9-4) - Projection: No. 3 seed
As we mentioned above, Kansas City has put itself in a strong position to overtake the Patriots as the No. 2 seed in the conference following that win on Sunday. They'll need either the Bengals, Bills or Dolphins to knock them off to do so along with continuing to win out. Their schedule isn't as kind as New England's as they'll have to face a surging Denver team next week along with a road trip to Chicago to take on the Bears in Week 16. That said, this team does appear to be trending in the right direction at an ideal time.
Conference record: 7-3
Strength of victory: .509
Final four: Broncos, at Bears, Chargers
AFC South: Houston Texans (8-5) - Projection: No. 4 seed
It's hard to figure out what kind of team the Texans are. After they beat the Patriots in Week 13, they looked like a legitimate threat in the AFC. But, following a loss to the Broncos, we're starting to rethink that. Houston also has an interesting remaining schedule, starting with a pivotal game against the Titans with the winner set to take first place in the AFC South. If the Texans aren't careful, they'll begin to free fall in the standings in a hurry.
Conference record: 7-3
Strength of victory: .462
Final four: at Titans, at Buccaneers, Titans
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AFC Playoffs 2019: Ranking wild-card chances for teams still in the NFL playoff hunt entering Week 15 - CBS Sports
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